Friday, May 21, 2010

Can Italy retain the World Cup?

No one could ever forget the final of 2006, the sight of Fabio Cannavaro hoisting the World Cup trophy high in the sky. It was such an eventful competition, from Totti's last minute penalty against Australia to Zidane's emotional capitulation due to Materazzi's provocation which resulted in his headbutt which will forever be etched in football history. Four years on, La Nazionale, complete with the same manager, Marcello Lippi and most of the players from 2006 are getting ready to defend the World Cup Trophy in South Africa next month from the time of writing. A lot of questions have been asked to this Italian team. From the dubious team selection by Lippi for equally mind-boggling reasons, to the aforementioned fact that most of the players from 2006 are still in the squad and more. But sometimes, football is not so straightforward, and matches are won on the pitch instead of on the paper. Thus, the question remains, can Italy defend the World Cup trophy to win it two years in succession and in both occasions defying the odds? In my honest and humble opinion, the Italian team which will be representing the country in the Rainbow Nation will not be able to rise to the occasion this time.

The first reason for this is of course the well documented and mind-boggling squad selection by Marcello Lippi for this year's edition of the World Cup. What makes his squad selection ever more baffling is the fact that the reasons for his inclusion and exclusion of certain players are strongly influenced by the rather solidly pragmatic approach as well as based on his personal views and like-and-dislike towards certain players. His inclusion of most of the old guards from the 2006 winning team (which will be touched upon in greater detail later) and the exclusion of two of Italy's best performers in the recently concluded season who are none other than Fabrizio Miccoli and Antonio Cassano perfectly explain how he chooses his squad. The focus here will be the exclusion of the players. It has been well documented that both players will not have a slightest of chances to don the famous Azzuri shirt as long as Lippi is in charge of the squad. In other words, the only way for those players to feature for their country again is for this World Cup to be so disastrous that the wily old manager resigns or sacked.

They have the right to think that the day beckons as without both of these explosive players, Italy's attack is rather blunt and even if they are able to negotiate the usually easy Group Stage, when the top teams come to face Italy, that's when the flaws will be exposed. Without solid attackers like those two to breach the stubborn and world class defence, and not forgetting that without the two guys who are capable of converting rare half-chances that come their way into goals without second invitations, it is hard to see how the team will negotiate past top teams such as Brazil, Spain, Argentina, and Germany. Teams who do not take their chances, even assuming that Italy can create a lot of chances, will be severely punished. Just look at Arsenal, nice passing, nice build up, eye catching assists, but nobody to finish them, they still win nothing. Same goes for Italy. Since Lippi is so stubborn with his personal policies to choose his players, it is hard to see Italy progressing far into the competition, let alone winning it again.

The second reason why Italy would not be able to retain the famous trophy is because of the other half of Lippi's selection policy in which he favors the old guards of 2006 such as Fabio Cannavaro, Mauro Camoranesi, Zambrotta, and Gattuso instead of calling the young bloods who have performed so admirably for their respective clubs in the recently concluded club season. Yes, those players are World Class players, but nobody could expect those same players to perform at the same top level throughout their careers. There must be a point of time when they are no longer capable of producing the goods at the very top level, and it can be argued that they have reached that point long ago. With the opposing teams constantly experimenting and introducing new, young, and fresh players into the squad and giving birth to extreme innovations within their games, Italy's progress can be safely considered as stagnant and I would liken them to a monopoly company who refuses to innovate only to see their monopoly position being usurped by other companies who constantly adopt new innovations for themselves. While the inclusion of the old guards of 2006, at a glance, seems to be the embodiment of Team Chemistry attainment and consistency in selection, this is the wrong kind of those aspects of the game, especially the latter. When they face youthful squad brimming with raw pace and hunger, the old and clumsy Italians will totally be caught off guard and that's when they are going to be knocked out. Another disappointment akin to the one in Euro 2008 awaits?

Another reason why Italy is incapable of retaining the World Cup is due to history. Since the great Pele infused Brazilian team did in 1958 and 1962, no other teams have managed to retain the famous trophy. While this reason might not be a realistic one and merely more of a superstitious reason, sometimes history plays a bigger role than anyone could envisage in the game. As a comparison, perhaps one should look at how no team has ever retained the UEFA Champions League since it is no longer known as European Cup and even until the time of writing, and at least until May 2011, no team has mamaged to retain the trophy and same goes to the World Cup trophy. Thus, if history has its way, Italy will not retain the cup.

But we have to remember one golden rule in football, “Anything can happen in football”. I would be contradicting myself to suggest that since Italy seems to be in such a disadvantaged and weak position that they will not win the world cup. Let me remind everyone again that my favorite to win the World Cup is Argentina, and we know how we would be ridiculed for placing just one Euro bet on Argentina winning the World Cup. The same goes for Italy of course, and still using the argument from my position for favoring Argentina, history has also proven that usually the team that is least expected to win the World Cup go far in the tournament instead of the massive favorites, and Italy is certainly not a favorite. Although I have to add that Italy is not the only team with the underdog tag and if the theory comes to light in the competition, Italy will have to fight it out with other least favored teams such as France and Argentina just to name two to get their hands on the grandest prize of them all in football, the World Cup.

In conclusion, we have taken a look at how Marcello Lippi's dubious team selections whether the exclusion of game changing and in-form players such as Miccoli and Cassano as well as his equally dubious faith on the 2006 cup winning players minus Fabio Grosso, whose exclusion has ignited debates all over the world and of course in Italy and the fact that history is against them suggests that Italy will not be able to retain the World Cup and it is time for yet another team to win this one. Although we have to remember that nothing in football is certain, but obvious weakness in a squad and mind-boggling antics such as Lippi's will prove to be a team's downfall, totally defying the famous saying, “anything can happen in football”

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